將領科學家接連被暗殺 大規模對等報復並非伊朗優先選項
【时事分析】「邪惡的猶太復國主義政權(以色列)再次向世人展示了他們極其醜陋邪惡的一面,但我們不會輕易掉入他們一手炮製的陷阱當中」。11月28日,伊朗總統魯哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)在電視講話中如是說道。
這段針對伊朗首席核科學家法克里扎德(Mohsen Fakhrizadeh)遇害事件發表的講話意味深長,至少反映出以下兩點信息:其一是伊朗高層沒有把襲殺事件的矛頭直接指向伊朗最大的全球勁敵美國,而是指向了區域地緣對頭以色列。其二是德黑蘭當局沒有就該事件展開大規模對等報復的打算。
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不過,這並不意味着德黑蘭當局會完全風平浪靜地接受這樣的「上門羞辱」。就在總統魯哈尼發表「克制性批評」的當天,伊朗最高精神領袖哈梅內伊(Ali Khamenei)公開表示伊朗將對此事做出回擊,同時呼籲對直接行兇者嚴懲不貸。
與此同時,面對聯合國秘書長古特雷斯(António Guterres)與歐盟方面要求當事方保持克制的言論,伊朗外長扎里夫(Mohammad Javad Zarif )在社交媒體上給予了毫不留情的譏諷:「某些組織(國家)拒絕出面與恐怖主義抗爭,而是畏縮在其後和稀泥,他們應該為這樣的作為感到羞恥」。
伊朗高層上述多少有些相互矛盾的表態,難免令人對德黑蘭當局接下來可能採取的回應舉措頗感疑惑。而就在法克里扎德遇害兩天後,當地時間11月29日晚,伊朗革命衛隊高級指揮官沙赫丹(Muslim Shahdan)在伊拉克和敘利亞邊境附近的加伊姆地區遇襲身亡。
兩天之內,兩位核心人物相繼死於非命。這樣的局面對德黑蘭高層的震動可想而知,同時,德黑蘭當局將如何回應接連發生的「上門羞辱」也顯得更加撲朔迷離。
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如果不考慮今年以來的襲殺事件的話,眼下的中東地緣格局對伊朗來說是相當有利的。
而這種對伊朗有利的區域地緣格局轉變自千禧年以來就已開始:小布殊(George W. Bush Junior)當局的中東反恐戰爭「幫助」伊朗「順利」清理掉了「敵鄰」——伊拉克的薩達姆(Saddam Hussein)政權,而「民主化」之後的伊拉克也順理成章地納入伊朗的勢力範圍之內。奧巴馬(Barack Obama)時代美國在中東的戰略撤退,以及期間達成的伊朗核協議,則為伊朗的「什葉派新月地帶」戰略徹底掃清了障礙。
相比之下,特朗普(Donald Trump)時代美國退出伊核協議且與盟友以色列聯手施壓伊朗的舉措,只是上述向好趨勢中的短暫波折,影響有限,並無法改變美國戰略性退出中東地緣競爭的長期走向——美國任候總統拜登(Joe Biden)在競選期間數次公開表示執政之後將立即重返伊核協議。
在這種「利好」大勢下,大規模對等報復並非德黑蘭當局的優先選項。如此行事,極有可能導致伊朗對美關係失控,進而為拜登當政以後美國重返伊核協議的進程製造重大障礙,這種「因小失大」的圖景並不符合伊朗的核心利益所在。
不過,另一方面,如果對這種「上門侮辱」採取完全忍氣吞聲的做法,則無法對國內洶湧而起的民意有所交待。因此,德黑蘭當局最有可能採取某種「有限回擊」的舉措作為回應。
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 640px, 50vw” srcset=”https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w1920 1920w,https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w1760 1760w,https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w1600 1600w,https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w1440 1440w,https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w1280 1280w,https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w1120 1120w,https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w960 960w,https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w800 800w,https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w640 640w,https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w480 480w,https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w320 320w” alt=”2020年11月28日,伊朗首席大法官萊西(Ebrahim Raisi,中立者 )在首都德黑蘭瞻仰法克里扎德的遺容,並慰問其家屬。(Getty Images)” data-ofi-src=”https://cdn.hk01.com/di/media/images/dw/20201201/410496712512638976874329.jpeg/2NRXTaO7uelzpDi1_nfBmKRwfkoVL2bCfOxl8XzsZfE?v=w1920″ /></div>
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連日來,伊朗高層的相關表態中將矛頭對準以色列及與前者勾結的伊朗國內反叛組織,已經在某種程度上為即將到來的「有限回擊」行動做前期鋪墊了。
這方面,作為伊朗政府喉舌的《世界報》說的最為直接。該報在11月29日發表的社評中稱如果以色列在伊朗高級核物理學家法克里扎德遭襲擊事件中負有責任,那麼伊朗應該向以色列的港口城市海法發動襲擊。
文章還主張,那些襲擊除了要摧毀當地的設施,還要造成「嚴重的人員傷亡」。襲擊以色列的這個第三大城市(海法)並造成人員傷亡,肯定會產生威懾作用,因為美國和以色列根本沒有做好參與軍事對抗乃至捲入戰爭的準備。
雖然《世界報》的說法略顯誇張,但至少說明了伊朗接下來進行回應行動的重點——即不與美國正面衝撞,但需要給美國的中東密友以色列給予必要教訓。
當然,鑑於伊朗當前面對的地緣情勢極為微妙,德黑蘭當局鮮有可能親自出手「教訓」,而最有可能借自身在以色列臥榻之側的重要代理人——黎巴嫩真主黨(Hezbollah)之手完成計劃中的回擊行動。(01)